Hold your breath: Corporate responsibility takes control of safety in the skies
A sharply focused case study in corporate responsibility (CR)is one the least predictable consequences of the Icelandic volcano eruption. But that’s precisely what the situation created.
Following the eruption and a wind direction directing the ash cloud directly over the UK from Iceland, UK airspace was progressively closed last Thursday (15th April)starting with Northern Scottish airports and quickly rolling South to shut the five London airports. By Friday most of Northern Europe was similarly affected.
The aviation authorities, it appeared, had prepared a plan for the eventuality and were putting it into action with remarkable efficiency.
Over the weekend the reality of life without high speed travel began to dawn on the people of Europe, many of whom were stranded on Easter holidays and scheduled to return to work and school. By Monday the atmosphere (media rather than planetary) was beginning to turn toxic. Why wasn’t the government doing something? How could we be so inconvenienced by a mere act of nature? And how could our airline companies be expected to survive?
The authorities were in fact applying what is, in CR circles, known as the precautionary principle. In other words if you can’t prove it’s safe then don’t do it. This was a strong part of the argument against allowing GM crops for example. The science of knowing where the ash cloud is and what it contains is inexact. There’s a chronic shortage of data to map a three dimensional moving phenomenon covering a million square miles. The ash cloud varies with time, location and height. One of the very few planes equipped with sampling technology overflew the UK and found ‘all kinds of muck up there’.
To add to the uncertainty, the aircraft and engine manufacturers have very little data on how resilient their technology is to volcanic ash. What is known, according to the International Airways Volcanic Watch Operations Group, is that between 1980 and 2000, there have been more than eighty jet incidents connected with ash and that there is ‘no definition of a safe concentration of ash’. The most notorious of these in 1982 very nearly brought down a British Airways 747 flight from Heathrow to Auckland, over Jakarta. The plane having unwittingly flown into the ash cloud emitted by the Mount Galunggung volcano suffered failure of all four engines and ‘glided’ (according to passengers in the vertical sense of the word) from 36,000 ft to 13,500 ft where one of the engines restarted. Before this the crew was seriously considering heading out to sea to ditch. Eventually the plane landed under three engines with minimal visibility from the sandblasted windscreen. Nineteen days later a second Singapore Airlines 747 also suffered three engine failures in the same area, forcing the Indonesian authorities, belatedly to close the airspace.
Donald Rumsfeld’s ridiculed description, ‘known unknowns’ accurately sums up the current state of understanding of the risk of flying through the ash cloud.
At first the airlines and airport operators towed the regulators’ line. Safety was the priority – any doubt and we stay on the ground. But they soon began to count the cost which increasingly weighed on their assessment of the situation. British Airways’ embattled Chief Executive Willie Walsh led the campaign to reopen the skies. On Sunday he flew a demonstration flight with some of his pilots – the message – the water’s fine come on in. It reminded me of former UK Environment Minister, John Gummer, feeding his daughter a beef burger to prove to the public that British Beef was safe to eat and free from CJD infection. I trust Cordelia remains in good health but 1,487 British citizens have died to date and the rate remains at about 80 deaths per year http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/figures.htm.
By yesterday, day five, the airlines coordinated their campaign. They openly challenged the science. Willie Walsh claimed the airlines were the best judge of when it is safe to fly. German airlines this morning complained of a ‘lack of an agreed methodology’ for assessing the risk. Out of central casting that one. How on earth do you agree a methodology when you don’t understand the science?
BA kept up the pressure with the traditional flurry of alarming statistics about how much it is losing each day. Reports varied from £5m to £20m. All businesses do this when they don’t like regulations and journalists almost never check their figures. This evening Willie fired his final salvo. In an Al Qaedaesque move he launched twenty eight planes fully laden with stranded citizens towards Heathrow airport – still closed by the regulators. All the while briefing the media that the rest of Europe was open and why would the UK government not allow its people home?
As the planes closed on their target, Willie got his showdown meeting with Transport Minister, Lord Adonis. Bear in mind the government is two weeks from the general election and trailing third in the polls. Ministers, not noted for their backbone at the best of times in dealing with business, are at their most febrile.
The outcome was a foregone conclusion. The government and its regulator, The Civil Aviation Authority abandoned the precautionary principle. The UK airports opened at 10pm this evening and Willie’s status as saviour of the stranded citizen is secure. The CAA muttered something outside the meeting about airlines having to conduct risk assessments and inspect their engines. But no one was listening, we’re back in business.
And that is the story of how corporate responsibility, BA style, took over regulation of the skies. Is it safe to fly? Don’t ask me, ask Willie – he’s in charge of risk assessment.
Keep safe, Sage
